US dollar: what crisis?
From a peak 13% overvaluation versus major peers heading into January, the US dollar has plunged 7% on a trade-weighted basis in three months – a pace more than twice as fast as during Trump’s first term.
Author: Ryk de Klerk
Risk ON: Why I turned bullish on stocks
Investors witnessed a sharp correction in major stock indexes after Trump imposed tariffs. An analysis of the S&P 500 PE trendline notes the re-rating potential of growth sectors that have slid into value territory.
The rand: more than meets the eye
Ahead of South Africa’s election, foreign asset managers increased their exposure as the 10-year bond yield gap reached 8%. Recent fluctuations, driven by speculative futures and options trading underscore the complex forces at play behind the rand’s performance.
Tariffs & markets | Why I’m increasing my risk budget
Market movements since Donald Trump’s inauguration are drawing comparisons with the 2018/19 trade war. With a 10% loss already, another 10% dip could be on the horizon if the economic fallout worsens.
US bonds: when a dead asset comes alive
With the risk premium of bonds relative to equities at a 20-year low, US bonds – particularly medium-term ones – are regaining their relevance in diversified investment portfolios.
Why I am overweight in US assets
The US economy continues to surge ahead, driven by AI investments, resilient corporate growth, and strategic monetary policy.
How to navigate anxiety in the approaching US tariffs tug of war
Donald Trump’s tariff threats shook global markets in 2018 and 2019, leaving investors grappling with volatility and uncertainty. Here are the lessons for investors as an unpredictable economic climate looms.
Trump’s economics: consumer confidence is the golden thread
During his first term, Donald Trump’s policies spurred a confidence-fuelled boom in US markets. With proposals for deeper tax cuts and renewed trade barriers, he’s aiming for a repeat performance.
SA credit rating upgrade is on the cards – not investment grade yet
The rating upgrade is likely to have profound implications for investment portfolios.
Beware the payback trap of the 60/40 portfolio
In investing, one key factor is often overlooked: the payback period. Understanding duration can reshape your portfolio strategy and help you manage risk more effectively.
The China bazooka stimulus: risk assets melt up?
Interest rate cuts, infrastructure bonds, and a revitalised stock market – China’s new stimulus package is poised to impact global investment strategies.
Tobacco companies: outperforming but now only fairly priced
In a market facing economic challenges, Altria and BAT have outperformed major indexes. Ryk de Klerk explores the pricing of tobacco shares, risk premiums, and the factors driving their resilience.
‘Wow, am I smart.’ The most expensive phrase in managing investments?
Investors should prioritise risk management by regularly re-evaluating their portfolios, rather than chasing high-growth investments driven by market euphoria.
‘Do not panic, look out for opportunities, but stick to your risk budget’
The US economy is giving off mixed signals, and the big question is whether it will slip into a recession or manage a soft landing.
Why I turned mildly bearish and opted for a defensive strategy
The formation of the GNU sparked a rally in local financial markets. But as storm clouds gather on global equity markets, the long-term outlook remains uncertain.
Why these Veblen stocks deserve a place in my investment portfolio
Rooted in luxury and status, Veblen stocks represent brands where consumers willingly pay a premium, driving profit margins and sustained growth.
Bullish on gold
The price of gold has risen amid geopolitical tensions and buying by central banks, decoupling from traditional indicators such as TIPS and ETFs.
