Is ‘long Covid’ the result of people electing to vaccinate?

Not even the performance of the Springboks or Proteas can get the nation as worked up as mentioning the jab. Not that this a laughing matter, but in this era, where people avidly watch the farce called “reality shows”, anything that might appear to corroborate a conspiracy theory is vehemently pursued.

Following publication of the article Higher death rate among younger, upper-income earners, we saw an almost unprecedented response, mainly from vaccine sceptics.

The article focuses on new trends observed in the annual group risk claims data released by Discovery Employee Benefits. The leading causes for these changes are attributed to:

• “Long Covid”;
• A marked decline in individuals conducting annual health checks and screenings (termed a “screening deficit”); and
• A reduction in individuals exercising regularly.

Several commentators called on Discovery to publish the actual data relating to the impact of vaccination on its client base.

Three studies by Discovery Health’s actuaries, published in November 2021, have concluded that the benefits of being vaccinated against Covid-19 “undoubtedly” outweigh the risks.

The research was based on data from members of medical schemes administered by Discovery Health. It addressed the following three questions:

1. How effective is the Pfizer vaccine at protecting against hospital admission and death?
2. Do people who are fully (Pfizer) vaccinated after recovering from a Covid-19 infection benefit from added protection?
3. How does the risk of complications from Covid-19 compare to the risk of complications following vaccination?

Discovery Health’s actuaries concluded, among other findings, that:

• Unvaccinated members have a five times higher risk of Covid-19 infection relative to fully vaccinated members, and they are at 20 times the risk of dying from the complications of a Covid-19 infection.
• No vaccine-related deaths have been recorded among members of schemes administered by Discovery Health.
• The vaccine is 73% effective at protecting against the risk of being admitted to hospital 14 days after dose one and 92% effective from 14 days after dose two.
• The vaccine is 79% effective at protecting against the risk of Covid-19 mortality from 14 days after dose one and 94% effective from 14 days after dose two.

Discovery’s actuaries also found that scheme members who have both recovered from Covid-19 and are fully (Pfizer) vaccinated have a 98% lower risk of being admitted to hospital with Covid-19, compared with 85% for those who have recovered from Covid-19 but are not fully vaccinated.

You can read the full details of Discovery’s analysis here.

Comparing the risk of complications from Covid-19 to the risk of complications following vaccination

The absolute risk of a severe health condition following vaccination with either the Pfizer or the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is significantly lower than the risk of complications following infection with Covid, according to Discovery Health.

“Our analysis shows that the complications of Covid-19 illness are significantly more common and serious than vaccine-related adverse events. For example, lymphadenopathy, myositis and paraesthesia are all known complications of Covid-19. They also occur with higher excess frequency in people who have Covid-19 than following Covid-19 vaccination.”

Discovery said that relative to these rare and manageable conditions, the complications following Covid-19 are significant and potentially fatal. In terms of absolute risk relating to Covid-19 infection:

• There is a 40-fold increased risk of pulmonary embolism after a Covid-19 infection;
• There is a 22-fold increased risk of myocarditis; and
• There is a 16-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury.

You can read the full details of Discovery’s analysis here.

Lingering side-effects

An article published in June 2022 commented on after-effects, possibly symptoms which became known as “long Covid”. Dr Ronald Whelan, the chief commercial officer of Discovery Health and the head of the company’s Covid-19 Task Team, provided the following information during a presentation at an InsureTalk webinar.

Covid affects many parts of the body – the brain, lungs, immune system and circulatory system – and Discovery members were reporting difficulties with communicating, concentrating, walking, hearing and seeing post-infection.

These incidents were relatively high, with 31% of Discovery members saying they have persistent headaches up to 18 months after infection, 14% have problems sleeping, 11% experience shortness of breath, 8% have heart palpitations, and 7% experience weakness in their arms or legs, or general muscle weakness.

Discovery data also showed that people who have had Covid were more at risk of being admitted to hospital compared with the general population. The risk was 2.4 times higher one month after recovering from Covid and 1.4 times higher two to 12 months after recovery.

However, the data to date does not show that people who have had Covid have a higher mortality risk compared to those who were not infected.

To jab, or not to jab?

The answer to the Bard’s question is irrelevant, given the reduced impact of the virus over the past year. Although we will never see the end of the argument between the pro- and anti-vaxxers, the other two options mentioned at the start of this article remain of extreme importance: screening and exercise. These are elements you can, and should, control.